PRO · MODEL REPORT

How Mel’s picks are doing

Every default pick is saved before the game and graded after it. This is the last 30 days, league by league: how often Mel picked the winner, how its percentages compare with the Vegas line, its record against the spread and the total, and whether its confidence holds up. A pick against the spread or total needs 52.4% to beat the usual −110 price. Small samples swing a lot.

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“Sharpness” is log loss: how much probability Mel put on what actually happened, lower is better, so Mel under Vegas means Mel’s percentages were sharper than the line’s. “When Mel said” groups picks by Mel’s confidence and shows how often they won. Simulations are estimates, not guarantees, and not betting advice.