Chicago Bears vs Atlanta Falcons prediction

Result

Final: Chicago Bears 31, Atlanta Falcons 23 (Chicago Bears won). Mel’s pick (Chicago Bears win 56% of the time) was right. On the total, Mel’s lean was right.

Mel’s pick

Chicago Bears win 56% of the time in Mel’s Playbook’s default simulation of this game, saved before it started.

• Chicago Bears: 56%
• Atlanta Falcons: 44%

Projected score

Chicago Bears 29, Atlanta Falcons 26. 22% of the simulations finished as one-score games.

Mel vs the betting line

Mel’s margin (Chicago Bears by about 2.3) is close to the line (Chicago Bears −1.5), so there’s no real lean against the spread.

The total is 52.5; Mel projects 54.9 points, a lean to the over.

Recent form

Chicago Bears (3-2) scored 23.8 and allowed 19.2 points a game over their last 5.

Atlanta Falcons (2-3) scored 23.8 and allowed 24.4 points a game over their last 5.

Based on this season’s stats, injuries, rest, travel and the betting market. Updated Oct 18, 11:20 AM ET.

See the full simulation

Mel’s Playbook Pro shows the range of likely totals and margins, player props and every factor behind the pick, and lets you tune the model (home field, injuries, momentum and more) and re-run the game.

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Every default-model prediction is saved before the game and graded against the final score on our public results page. Simulations are estimates, not guarantees, and this is not betting advice. 21+ where applicable; if gambling is a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.